Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
